Quantifying the Lock-In Effect in a Dynamic Industry

No abstract.

Learning from failure

We study decentralized learning in organizations. Decentralization is captured through a symmetry constraint on agents’ strategies. Among such attainable strategies, we solve for optimal and equilibrium strategies. We model the organization as a repeated game with imperfectly observable actions. A fixed but unknown subset of action profiles are successes and all other action profiles are failures. The game is played until either there is a success or the time horizon is reached. For any time horizon, including infinity, we demonstrate existence of optimal attainable strategies and show that they are Nash equilibria. For some time horizons, we can solve explicitly for the optimal attainable strategies and show uniqueness. The solution connects the learning behavior of agents to the fundamentals that characterize the organization: Agents in the organization respond more slowly to failure as the future becomes more important, the size of the organization increases and the probability of success decreases.Game theory

Industry Evolution: New Technologies and New Firms

This paper investigates the effects of employee mobility on industry evolution and technology diffusion by testing a dynamic industry equilibrium model introduced in Franco and Filson (1999). The model focuses on a particular type of employee mobility: researchers can leave existing firms and attempt to form new firms (spin-outs). The model has four testable results: First, spin-outs are an important source of entry. Second, spin-out founds come from firms with high know-how. Third, firms with high know-how are more likely to survive. Fourth, spin-outs whose parents have high know-how are more likely to survive. Using data from the rigid disk drive industry (1977-1997), we find support for the first three results and mixed support for the fourth.spin-off; industry dynamics; technological change; innovation; research and development

Knowledge Diffusion through Employee Mobility

In high-tech industries, one important method of diffusion is through employee mobility: many of the entering firms are started by employees from incumbent firms using some of their former employers' technological know-how. This paper explores the effect of incorporating this mechanism in a general industry framework by allowing employees to imitate their employers' know-how. The equilibrium is Pareto optimal since the employees "pay" for the possibility of learning their employers' know-how. The model's implications are consistent with data from the rigid disk drive industry. These implications concern the effects of know-how on firm formation and survival.socio-political instability; endogenous growth; public investment; political economy of growth

Knowledge diffusion through employee mobility

In high-tech industries, one important method of diffusion is through employee mobility: many of the entering firms are started by employees from incumbent firms using some of their former employers’ technological know-how. This paper explores the effect of incorporating this mechanism in a general industry framework by allowing employees to imitate their employers’ know-how. The equilibrium is Pareto optimal since the employees “pay” for the possibility of learning their employers’ know-how. The model’s implications are consistent with data from the rigid disk drive industry. These implications concern the effects of know-how on firm formation and survival.Technological innovations ; Research and development

Dynamic Coordination via Organizational Routines

We investigate dynamic coordination among members of a problem solving team who receive private signals about which of their actions are required for a (static) coordinated solution and who have repeated opportunities to explore different action combinations. In this environment ordinal equilibria, in which agents condition only on how their signals rank their actions and not on signal strength, lead to simple patterns of behavior that have a natural interpretation as routines. These routine spartially solve the team’s coordination problem by synchronizing the team’s search efforts and prove to be resilient to changes in the environment by being expost equilibria, to agents having only a coarse understanding of other agents’ strategies by being fully cursed, and to natural forms of agents’ overcon?dence. The price of this resilience is that optimal routines are frequently not optimal equilibria

Rational Multi-Agent Search

We study games in which players search for an optimal action profile. All action profiles are either a success, with a payoff of one, or a failure, with a payoff of zero. Players do not know the location of success profiles; instead each player is privately informed about the marginal distribution of success profiles over his actions. We characterize optimal joint search strategies.Search, Decentralization, Symmetry

Decentralized Organizational Learning: An Experimental Investigation

We experimentally study decentralized organizational learning. Our objective is to understand how learning members of an organization cope with the confounding effects of the simultaneous learning of others. We test the predictions of a stylized, rational agent model of organizational learning that provides sharp predictions as to how learning members of an organization might cope with the simultaneous learning of others as a function of fundamental variables, e.g., firm size and the discount factor. While the problem of learning while others are learning is quite difficult, we find support for the comparative static predictions of the model's unique symmetric equilibrium.

Decentralized Organizational Learning: An Experimental Investigation

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Dynamic Coordination via Organizational Routines

We investigate dynamic coordination among members of a problem solving team who receive private signals about which of their actions are required for a (static) coordinated solution and who have repeated opportunities to explore different action combinations. In this environment ordinal equilibria, in which agents condition only on how their signals rank their actions and not on signal strength, lead to simple patterns of behavior that have a natural interpretation as routines. These routine spartially solve the team’s coordination problem by synchronizing the team’s search efforts and prove to be resilient to changes in the environment by being expost equilibria, to agents having only a coarse understanding of other agents’ strategies by being fully cursed, and to natural forms of agents’ overcon?dence. The price of this resilience is that optimal routines are frequently not optimal equilibria.